UFC 84 Predictions
Date: 2008-08-21 14:00:02
Source: http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/ultimatefan/arc...
Submitted By: UFC Dump
Going around the horn for UFC 84 I was recently asked to participate in a roundtable forum with two other prominent MMA writers/experts from around the country (Joke's on them; I'm no expert!). We each shared our thoughts and opinions about the three biggest fights, on the upcoming UFC 84. If you're sick and tired of my picks, here's a chance to read what real experts have to say. Picture FightTicker.com is happy to welcome a guest panel to do UFC 84 predictions. The members of the panel are Larry Vollmer of The Journal News, Tom Kim of the Seattle PI, and Jared Barnes of the Houston Chronicle. The three submitted their picks for the BJ Penn-Sean Sherk, Tito Ortiz-Lyoto Machida, and Wanderlei Silva-Keith Jardine fights. Guest panel introductions Larry Vollmer Jr. is an MMA writer for the The Journal News and also trains mixed martial arts when he isn't stuck in front of the computer. Check out Vollmer's blog at http://mma.lohudblogs.com. Tom Kim: I'll skip my introduction since I'm already world famous ; ) and since this is my blog. Jared Barnes is the MMA writer for the Houston Chronicle and blogs at http://www.chron.com/sports/mixedmartialarts/. Picks Wanderlei Silva vs. Keith Jardine Vollmer: Wanderlei Silva - Unanimous Decision "Before running into the roadblock known as Houston Alexander, Keith Jardine was moving closer and closer to a light heavyweight title shot. He took Houston Alexander lightly, and found himself viciously knocked out for his efforts, or lack there of. Jardine rebounded nicely in his next fight when he won a split decision against Chuck Liddell, and now he finds himself fighting Liddell's nemesis Wanderlei "The Axe Murderer" Silva. "Wanderlei Silva is coming off of three consecutive losses. He desperately needs a win and he needs a win in convincing fashion. I expect Jardine to be cautious, throwing his trademark leg kicks to keep Silva on the outside while using his reach to pepper Silva with punch combinations. Silva has already stated that his number one priority is putting on a good fight for the fans, win lose or draw, so you have to expect that Silva will be approaching this fight pretty fiercely. Wanderlei needs to get on the inside and do what he does best, deliver vicious knockouts via punches, kicks, and knees. Liddell did a good job of keeping Silva in check and I would hope that Silva has adjusted his training accordingly. Jardine has the height and reach advantage, so it is a must that Wanderlei gets inside position on Jardine. He has a tough task ahead of him and maybe I hold a slight bias because I am a Wanderlei Silva fan, but I believe that this fight will be the fight that Wanderlei gets himself back on the winning track." Kim: Wanderlei Silva - TKO Round 3 "Both of these guys love to keep the fight standing, so I don't expect either's ground game to play a factor. I know that Wanderlei has not looked like the 'Axe Murderer' but Jardine is the perfect opponent for him right now. While he did beat Liddell, Chuck doesn't push the pace and fight with Wand's aggressiveness. We all know how Jardine fared the last time he fought an ultra aggressive striker (Houston Alexander). Wand also NEEDS this fight more than Jardine does. A loss for Jardine is nothing to be ashamed of. If Silva loses, then his legacy takes a major hit and he will probably be forever relegate to gatekeeper status. I think after a long standup war, Wand will finally finish Jardine with a combination of knees and punches." Barnes: Wanderlei Silva - KO Round 3 "Whichever way this fight goes, fans are in for a hell of a fight. Jardine and Silva are both notorious bangers and love to stand up and brawl. They both push the action and aren't afraid to take chances. "This is a very tough fight to call, but I think Silva needs it and wants it more." The Pick: Wanderlei Silva (3-0) Tito Ortiz vs. Lyoto Machida Vollmer: Lyoto Machida - Unanimous Decision "Right off the bat, I believe that Lyoto Machida will win this fight. I'd like to see Tito Ortiz win in a dominating fashion, but I just don't think it will happen. Ortiz hasn't put on the most impressive performances lately. Ortiz used to be a cardio machine, but now we see "The Huntington Beach Bad Boy" starting to lose his steam in the second round of fights. He hypes all his fights and does a lot of talking, but he hasn't been walking the walk when it comes time to step into the octagon. Ortiz has publicly stated that this is his last fight in the UFC, making him the hottest free agent in the market. The problem is that Ortiz know that a lot of these new MMA start up organizations need Tito Ortiz more then Tito Ortiz needs a start up organization. No matter where he goes, he is going to make a ton of money, and that is not exactly a motivating factor to win this fight. That fact, coupled with his last few performances, may very well lead to a less then impressive exit from the UFC. "Lyoto Machida isn't the most exciting fighter, but he has the conditioning and skill to go the distance with Ortiz, and I believe he will win this fight via unanimous decision." Kim: Tito Ortiz - Decision "While I respect Machida and understand he's a future star, I believe Tito is just a bad match-up for him. Yes, Machida is undefeated with wins over Rich Franklin and BJ Penn, but those guys were smaller or in BJ's case much smaller than Lyoto. Tito is as big and strong as they come. Lyoto's also never fought someone with Tito's wrestling and ground-and-pound skills. The only way to beat Tito is either outwrestle him a la Randy Couture or scare him with big knockout striking power, a la Chuck Liddell. While Lyoto is a precise striker, I don't think Tito fears his power and will be willing to trade with him and set up a takedown. Once on the ground, Lyoto's Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu will be negated by Tito's great top control and trademark ground and pound. I see this fight going the way of Tito's bout with Vitor Belfort." Barnes: Lyoto Machida - Unanimous Decision "The truth is Ortiz no longer has the skills or the desire necessary to win in the new UFC. He's past his prime and everybody knows it. "Machida's precision striking and strong ground game will overpower Ortiz and lead to a unanimous decision over 'The Huntington Beach Bad Boy.'" The Pick: Lyoto Machida (2-1) BJ Penn (Champ) vs. Sean Sherk (Challenger) for the UFC lightweight title Vollmer: BJ Penn - KO/TKO Round 3 "This is going to be a hell of a fight. You have the superb wrestler versus the superb submission fighter. Both fighters have solid chins and pretty good boxing, although Penn's boxing is better then Sherk's. Both Penn and Sherk have never lost via submission and have only been stopped once in each of their careers. If BJ Penn has the cardio to go 5 rounds, he will win this fight. His takedown defense is top notch and he will get the better of the stand up exchange should Sherk choose to stand with him. When Sherk fought Georges St. Pierre , St. Pierre stuffed Sherk's takedowns over and over again and even secured a few takedowns of his own. Sherk was forced to stand up with St.Pierre and lost every bit of that exchange. St. Pierre disposed of Sherk quickly in round 2 when he put Sherk on his back. Should Sherk secure a takedown, BJ Penn is very comfortable on his back and has a good chance of submitting Sherk. BJ's guard is amazing and his dexterity is of another world. As long as BJ comes ready to fight five rounds, he has every tool in his arsenal to win this fight." Kim: BJ Penn - TKO Round 2 "Like most everyone else, I think Sherk will try to grind out a decision with his takedowns and top control. BJ on the other hand, will probably try to finish him early and not risk letting cardio play a factor. While Sherk does have a strong chin, look for BJ to use his reach and pepper him with some big shots. That should make Sherk shoot from further out than he'd like and give BJ enough time to stuff him. I think Sherk is good and strong enough to defend BJ's submission attempts, but fighting off his back is not his strong suit. I think BJ eventually drops Sherk with a few big knees and finishes him with some nice ground and pound." Barnes: Sean Sherk - Majority Decision "BJ says he going to finish Sherk in the first round, but I don't think even he believes that. This fight will be 5 rounds of maelstrom from bell to bell. "I give the edge in striking, submissions and defense to Penn. I give the edge in wrestling, cardio and gameness to Sherk. When two fighters of this caliber clash in the octagon gameness reigns supreme." The Pick: BJ Penn (2-1)